While industrial production in Turkey increased by 8.5% in June compared to the same month of the previous year, according to calendar adjusted data; Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production increased by 1.3% compared to the previous month. According to unadjusted data, industrial production increased by 8.4% compared to the same period of the previous year.
In general, we see industrial production data that is above the expectations of all market participants and slightly below our expectations. Although the general trend of the data is strong, there are items that show higher increases than the headline in the sub-details, especially manufacturing. While mining and quarrying contributed negatively to the index on a monthly basis, we observe that the capital goods side fell sharply on a monthly basis. This is negative for fixed capital investors from the sub-details of GDP.
When we look at the details; While mining and quarrying decreased by 2.1% on a monthly basis, it contracted by 7.1% on an annual basis. While an increase of 1.6% was observed in the manufacturing industry on a monthly basis, there was a 10% growth on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, there was an increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis, and an increase of 0.6% on an annual basis. While non-durable goods increased by 4.9%, durable goods by 3.4% and intermediate goods by 1% on a monthly basis; capital goods decreased by 2.4% and energy by 1.3%. Looking at the annual changes in the related items; Non-durable consumer goods increased by 16.4%, capital goods by 12.4%, intermediate goods by 4.9%, durable consumption goods by 2.9% and energy by 1%. When the technology groups are examined, the calendar adjusted data show that the low technology group increased by 3.3%, the medium-low group increased by 1.6%, and the medium-high group increased by 2.4%. The high technology group, on the other hand, decreased by 15.3%.
When we evaluate the current account balance and industrial production data for June together, it seems that the growth has closed the first half of the year with a strong performance. In this respect, growth expectations for the year in general may be revised upwards. With the second half, the first reflections point to a weaker trend in the context of the sharp fall in the July manufacturing PMI and the decline in the confidence indices. In the CBRT Market Participants Survey, we read the 2022 GDP growth expectations as 3.7%. We expect a growth performance of 3.9% throughout the year.
Kaynak: Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı